What's going on with Sydney FC?
With 2 wins in their last 5, Sydney FC haven’t been having a great time recently.
They are one step closer to being knocked out of the Asian Champions league two, with a heavily disappointing first leg 2-0 defeat to Singaporean side Lion City Sailors. The billionaire-backed league leaders came into this match as underdogs against the Australian side, but a backs-to-the-wall, counter-attacking masterclass produced the upset.
An elimination could be the final nail in the coffin for their 24/25 season, along with their head manager, Ufuk Talay.
The young Australian coach has come into a lot of criticism this season. Whilst it seems sensible to leave the job to him till the end of the season, the disappointment of this latest result has led to many Sydney fans calling for his resignation right now.
But how is it going so wrong?
Talay employs a system focusing on slow build up, high possession, and wide overloads. The aim of this type of system is to control the match, limiting the opponents time on the ball, having numbers back to stop counter attacks, and to routinely outshoot the opposition.
This system contrasts with more direct, fast play (akin to Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, and Inter Milan) in that it allows the opposing team time to sit back and organise a strong defensive line.
With this tactical philosophy, you gain more of the ball, but you lose the ability to attack with speed, isolating your attackers to the opposition’s defenders. You’ll virtually always be attacking against a back 5.
It’s a system employed by many of the best around the world, notably Manchester City’s Pep Guardiola.
The difference is that for Guardiola’s city- and other successful possession-based teams- once they’re faced with the low block, they would have the options of;
a) orchestrated winger movements allowing for cutbacks to any of the many players inside the box,
b) creative playmakers who make intelligent passes,
c) and long-shot proficient midfielders.
Sydney FC do not seem to have any answers akin to these when faced with low blocks.
Once Talay’s side win back the ball, the focus is on conservative movements, side-ways and backwards passing, and an upmost focus on retaining possession. The problem is, once they have secured the ball, they struggle to then break down the opposing team. All this passing gives the other team ample time to shuffle back and organise themselves into an impenetrable structure.
The team’s struggles of late seems to have contributed to a lack of effort and determination on the pitch, with the team routinely losing 50/50s.
Star player Joe Lolley hasn’t scored or assisted since Feb 20, the club doesn’t seem to trust any of their goalkeepers, and recent signing Anas Ouahim hasn’t scored or assisted in any comp this year so far (admittedly he has had good performances in this time, but his lack of success in front of goal is emblematic of Sydney FC as of late).
The team also seems unable to organise a strong defence, conceding many high-quality shots in dangerous areas. They’ve conceded 10 goals in their last 5 games in all competitions.
Talay has a talented squad at his hands, but defensive frailty and an unimaginative attacking structure looks to be culminating in a resounding failure of a season.
Although it isn’t all doom and gloom for Sydney FC this year.
Youngster Adrian Segecic has been in scintillating form. Mostly starting on the bench, the winger has been used as a super-sub, with his direct nature and devastating pace a terrifying sight for tired defenders.
The Sydney youth player recently arrived back from a loan at Dutch side FC Dordrecht. There he played 1900 minutes, scoring 5 goals, and gaining invaluable experience in being an important player for a European team.
Dordrecht is a sister club of Feyernoord, and Segecic was impressive enough to catch the eye of the Feyernoord higher-ups. He even had one-on-one conversations with then manager (and current Liverpool head coach) Arne Slot. Loans like these are of extreme importance to the development of Aussie talent, as now bigger European teams can see that Adrian is capable of making the move across the world whilst still improving as a player.
This season, compared to other A-league wingers, he’s in the 99th percentile of goals and shots, and the 72nd percentile for defensive actions.
He is also over-performing his xG by a LOT (5.2xG to 10 goals scored). Statistically, his high rate of scoring is likely to decrease. But who knows, maybe he’s akin to Son, a player who over-performs his XG yearly, simply because he’s an above average finisher. Time will tell with the 20 year old.
Fellow attackers Douglas Costa and Patryk Klimala have similarly continued to produce high-level performances. Costa has averaged a match rating of 7.54 (via Fotmob), and Polish forward Klimala has scored 10 in the league, bringing him up to a joint 4th place in the golden boot race. If Englishman Joe Lolley can recapture his form, Sydney will undoubtedly have an abundance of high-quality options to call upon come finals.
A home match against 9th placed Newcastle Jets aside, the rest of Sydney’s matches are against top-6 opposition, including an upcoming match against league leaders Auckland FC.
Comparatively, 7th placed Adelaide united have quite an easy run-in. Sydney fans all around will be sweating any lost points in their next couple matches, with Adelaide hot on their heels. Any slip-ups, paired with a failure to overturn their 2 goal deficit in the Asian CL Two, will lead to an extremely bitter and disappointing season for the sky blues.